Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 29/0822Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 074
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10