- Status Report
- Feb 5, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 077
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 076/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 009/010-017/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/65/50