Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2376 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Jan 077

Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 076/075/075

90 Day Mean        29 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  007/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  009/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  009/010-017/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/45/35

Minor Storm           05/20/15

Major-severe storm    01/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           20/25/30

Major-severe storm    20/65/50