Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/0818Z from Region 2488 (N04W66). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at 28/2226Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1600Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 107
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 108/105/100
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 006/006-006/006-005/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20