Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 29/1142Z from Region 2268 (S10W17). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at 28/2146Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 29/1809Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 228 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Jan, 31 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 165
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 170/170/170
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 012/015-012/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
