Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Feb 070
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 29 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/20