Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2832 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 069
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 019/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 010/010-009/010-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20