Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 29/1415Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1092 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 072
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  006/005-008/010-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor Storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/35/50