Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (30 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 29/0449Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15202 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (01 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 073
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 072/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/010-018/024-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/55/30