Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
December 29, 2014
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2014

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to

29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/1052Z from Region 2250 (N08W68). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 668 km/s at 29/2035Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Dec 132

Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 130/130/125

90 Day Mean        29 Dec 156

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  008/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  009/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  010/010-007/010-007/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/20

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/25/25

 

SpaceRef staff editor.