Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/1052Z from Region 2250 (N08W68). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 668 km/s at 29/2035Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 132
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 010/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan