Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
29/0756Z from Region 1936 (S17W08). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec,
01 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 414 km/s at
28/2300Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2114Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2102Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29 pfu at 28/2315Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 137
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 140/130/135
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 143

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 006/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/20