Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 29/0602Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2210Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 28/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 947 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 070
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/012-013/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/40
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/45/55