Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 28/2220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1201Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (31 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (01 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 066
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/008-016/020-025/034

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 10/25/40
Major-severe storm 01/10/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/65/75