Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 29/0319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 97634 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Aug 071

Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070

90 Day Mean        29 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  009/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/20/20

Major-severe storm    25/20/15