Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/0300Z from Region 2674 (N11E70). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1127 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 29/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Aug) and active to minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 084
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 084/086/086
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  017/020-024/030-023/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           10/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/20