Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/0346Z from Region 2583 (N13W66). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 28/2105Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/1212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1946 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 088
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 014/018-015/018-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15