Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 28/2347Z from Region 2403 (S15W82). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (31 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 512 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 55/40/05
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 100
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 028/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 009/010-009/008-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/45
Minor Storm 05/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/70
