Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/1552Z from Region 2146 (N08, L=346). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Aug,
31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 459 km/s at 29/1317Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/0055Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 29/0309Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 751
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 120
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 017/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 007/008-011/014-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20