Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0434Z from Region 1836 (N15E36). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Aug,
31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at
28/2143Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2049Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 29/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 109
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 108/105/108
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 014/020-016/020-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor Storm 25/25/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/60/30