Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 April 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
April 29, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 28/2143Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1250 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 071
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.