Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1634Z from Region 2327 (S08W90). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 338 km/s at 28/2204Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1843Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May) and quiet levels on day three (02 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 104
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 007/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
