Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr,
01 May, 02 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 304 km/s at
29/1952Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2004Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 515 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 May, 02 May).

III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 120
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 30/05/05