Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 28/0315Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3457 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 069
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 006/005-006/005-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/45