Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 September 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
September 28, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 28/1458Z from Region 2422 (S20W30). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 410 km/s at 28/0018Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/20
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 124
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 006/005-006/006-008/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/15/20

 

SpaceRef staff editor.