Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 September 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
September 28, 2014
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
28/0258Z from Region 2173 (S17W39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 28/1113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0949Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1208 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (01 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one through three (29 Sep – 01 Oct)

III. Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 15/20/20
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 181
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 185/190/195
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/010-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/25

SpaceRef staff editor.