Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep,
30 Sep, 01 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 326 km/s at
27/2121Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep)
and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 106
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  007/008-007/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/40