Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 27/2214Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1432Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21570 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 088
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/25