Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 27/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0248Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2202 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 075
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 075/075/074
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/15