Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 28, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/0937Z from Region 2436 (N08W74). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at 28/0123Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 112
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 010/012-009/012-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/35
Major-severe storm 30/35/35

SpaceRef staff editor.