Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 28/0445Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 28/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 28/0127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 412 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 092
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 092/094/094
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10