Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 28/0004Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1673 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 110
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 108/108/106
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10