Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/0801Z from Region 2611 (N04W0*). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 27/2100Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41607 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (01 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 085
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/05