Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 28/2100Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/0954Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 097
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 007/008-010/012-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/30/45