Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to

28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at

28/0040Z from Region 2222 (S20E44). There are currently 8 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov,

01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

412 km/s at 28/1242Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/1459Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1215Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 439 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet to

active levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

Class M    40/45/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           28 Nov 181

Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 185/185/185

90 Day Mean        28 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  007/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/25

Minor Storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/25

Major-severe storm    10/10/30