Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0041Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov,
01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at
28/0541Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/1720Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1808Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01
Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 133
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05