Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 317 km/s at 28/1058Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 068
Predicted 29 May-31 May 069/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 008/008-008/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20