Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 28/2051Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2018Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and quiet levels on day three (31 May).

III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 068
Predicted 29 May-31 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 28 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 011/016-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 35/30/20