Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 28/0656Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (29 May, 31 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 May).

III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 088
Predicted 29 May-31 May 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 28 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 013/015-016/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/25
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/55/35