Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/2131Z from Region 2356 (S15E75). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 383 km/s at 28/0316Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2036Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 May) and quiet levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 093
Predicted 29 May-31 May 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 28 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
