Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0221Z from Region 2065 (S19, L=147). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at
28/0828Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2357Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0142Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 May, 31 May).

III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 099
Predicted 29 May-31 May 098/095/095
90 Day Mean 28 May 143

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May NA/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 008/008-006/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05