Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 May 2013

By SpaceRef Editor
May 28, 2013
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
846 km/s at 28/0351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2240Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0133Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 49652 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (31 May).

III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 105
Predicted 29 May-31 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 28 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 004/005-005/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/20

SpaceRef staff editor.