Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 March 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 28/1129Z from Region 2975 (N13W12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (29 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 28/1016Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2106Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 28/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (31 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 35/30/30
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 99/15/15
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 156
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 008/008-007/008-023/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/35
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/30/70
