Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 27/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42064 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 069
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 069/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  013/015-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/20