Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 March 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0456Z from Region 2645 (S09E44). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 781 km/s at 28/0711Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14903 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (29 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 084
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 084/084/083
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 034/052
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 026/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 022/030-020/024-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/15
