Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 28/1607Z from Region 2303 (N18W78). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 146
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 017/022-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar