Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
28/1918Z from Region 2017 (N10W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
460 km/s at 28/0250Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/0100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1832Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 146
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05