Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Mar,
30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
574 km/s at 27/2128Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2305Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2234Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1229 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (30 Mar). Quiet levels are expected on day
three (31 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 099
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 009/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10