Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
June 28, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 28/1718Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0119Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jun, 30 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 068
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.