Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 27/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5570 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 070
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  006/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/35/35