Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 28/0052Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 28/0622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 716 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Jun, 30 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 072
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15