Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0701Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jun,
30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
368 km/s at 28/1017Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1246Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/1153Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 10/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 115
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05